Tuesday 4 June 2013

India is finally looking East, but is it enough?

The importance India and Japan now attach to their bilateral ties was evident in the statements from the Indian and Japanese prime ministers.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh gave India’s ‘Look East’ policy another fillip with his trips to Thailand and Japan last week. In Thailand, Singh’s visit resulted in a landmark extradition pact, along with ratification of an agreement for the exchange of sentenced persons, and a memorandum of understanding for facilitating cooperation for investigation into money laundering and terror financing. These pacts will make it difficult for criminals and other fugitives wanted for terrorism and transnational crimes to make Thailand their preferred destination, something that has been of great concern to India. India has invited participation of the Thai private sector in its plans to modernise and upgrade manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, especially in the Delhi-Mumbai and Chennai-Bangalore industrial corridors, the Buddhist circuit and the northeast states of India.

Thailand also expressed a keen interest in India’s defence sector, an area that will be further explored when the Indian defence minister will visit Thailand later this month.
But it was Japan where India’s ambitions in the region really came out in the open. New Delhi and Tokyo not only agreed to institutionalize joint exercises by their navies and to increase their frequency,  but Japan also offered its highly advanced sea plane Shinmaywa or US-2 to India. This is a remarkable development as this is the first instance of Tokyo’s readiness to offer a dual-use technology to New Delhi, setting a new bench-mark in the rapidly evolving bilateral ties. The Singh-Abe joint statement also directed officials of their countries to “accelerate” the negotiations of an Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. These talks have been going on for quite some time now and have been in the deep freeze since the Fukushima incident but the new Japanese government is keen on nuclear power. Unlike in the past, Japan has not made India signing the NPT a precondition for the conclusion of this civil nuclear energy pact this time.


The importance India and Japan now attach to their bilateral ties was evident in the statements from the Indian and Japanese prime ministers. According to Singh, “It is not only our spiritual and cultural affinities that bring us together, but also our shared commitment to democracy and international peace. The success of our partnership is vital for the prosperity of our people and indispensable for a future of peace and stability in Asia and Pacific region.” Shinzo Abe reciprocated suggesting “India from the west, Japan from the east, the confluence of the two most deep-rooted democracies is already one important part of international common good for the 21st century. I am of a belief that it is important that Japan and India should ensure that Asia remains in peace and prosperity.”
That this visit has not gone unnoticed in China is apparent from the Chinese media’s over-the-top reaction. State-run Global Times warned that strategic cooperation with Japan “can only bring trouble to India.” But India’s gravitation towards East and Southeast Asia is not something that has just begun. It was the end of the Cold War that really brought this region back to the forefront of India’s foreign policy horizons. And the then prime minister, PV Narasimha Rao, whose contributions are often ignored in Indian foreign policy discourse, was visionary enough to recognise the importance of engaging with the world’s most economically dynamic region. Since then, India’s ‘Look East’ policy, which originated primarily to focus on trade and economics, has now attained a distinct security dimension.  As India’s economic linkages with various countries in the region have become more extensive, demands have grown for a gradual strengthening of security ties at a time of China’s rapid ascendance in the global hierarchy.

China is clearly too big and too powerful to be ignored by the regional states. But the states in China’s vicinity are now seeking to expand their strategic space by reaching out to other regional and global powers. Smaller states in the region are now looking to India to act as a balancer in view of China’s growing influence and a broader leadership vacuum in the region, while larger states see India as an attractive engine for regional growth. To live up to its full potential and meet the region’s expectations, India will have to do a more convincing job of emerging as a credible strategic partner of the region. India, for its part, would not only like greater economic integration with the fastest growing region in the world but would also like to challenge China on its periphery. But India will have to do much more to emerge as a serious player in the region.

China’s aggressive turn towards the region in the last few years has provided India with a key opening in the region to underline its credentials as a responsible regional stakeholder. On the one hand, China’s aggressive pursuit of its territorial claims has aggravated regional tensions. On the other, despite Obama administration’s famous ‘pivot’ towards the Asia-Pacific, there are doubts about the ability of Washington to manage regional tensions effectively. India’s proximity to the region and its growing capabilities make it a natural partner of most states in East and Southeast Asia.
New Delhi, which so often likes to sit on margins and avoid taking sides, must assume it can no longer afford the luxury of inaction if it wants to preserve credibility as a significant actor in both East Asia and Southeast Asia. Indian foreign policy moves in recent years have underlined New Delhi’s ambitions to expand its footprint in the region which has so far been viewed as outside India’s core interests. At a time when China’s bullying behaviour has been evident in its actions and pronouncements, India is signalling that it is ready to emerge as a serious balancer in the region. The regional states have often complained about Indian diffidence and its lack of seriousness. Now India is getting serious but it remains far from clear if it is well prepared to challenge China on its own turf.

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