The coming few months are going to be crucial for the Indian
diplomacy even though the Indian politics is in a tailspin and the UPA
government not in the pink of health.
India is set to intensify its bilateral engagement with such major world powers as Germany, Japan and China. Perhaps the most defining of these engagements would be with Japan, a “swing” country for India to counterbalance the China factor. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to visit Japan by May-end; but more about it slightly later.
Shortly after that he is likely to visit China on a bilateral visit. However, it is but obvious that even if the PM’s visits to Japan and China are back-to-back, the two destinations won’t be clubbed in the PM’s itinerary as it would be bad diplomacy on part of India and would send wrong signals to both the receiving states.
In June, India is hosting the next IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) summit, whose biggest USP is that IBSA is an outfit that is sought by the Chinese to be rendered infructuous after BRICS but India is determined to continue with IBSA as well. The China angle is important in IBSA by virtue of its absence!
Ten days later Manmohan Singh would be in Germany for a bilateral visit (April 10-11). The importance of Germany cannot be overstated. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and also the most populous nation on the continent, having overtaken Russia. Germany contributes 23 percent of the European Union budget. It is India’s biggest trading partner in Europe (with bilateral trade hovering around 20 billlion USD) and the 5th biggest trading partner in the world. Germany is also India’s second largest technology partner.
India and Germany have a strategic partnership since 2001, which has been further strengthened with the first Intergovernmental Consultations held in May 2011. India is the first country in Asia (besides Israel,) and the only country outside Europe to have intergovernmental consultations with Germany.
India and Germany also have several institutionalized arrangements like a strategic dialogue, foreign office consultations, and joint commission on industrial and economic cooperation, defence committee dialogue and a Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism to discuss various bilateral and global issues of interest.
The agenda of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh can be gauged by this brief introduction of Germany and Indo-German relations.
However, the prime focus of the Indian diplomatic outreach would be Japan. As stated before, Japan is the “swing” country for India to balance China. Both India and Japan are troubled by a rising China and both, like many other nations in the neighbourhood, do not find China’s rise “peaceful”. India and Japan are the best bets for each other in countering China.
This is what is happening quietly but surely since 2006 when India and Japan started their bilateral mechanism of holding annual summits. In fact, Japan and Russia are the only two countries with which India has an institutionalized mechanism of annual summits. Not even countries like the United States or Germany or France or UK or even the powerful bloc like the European Union have that privilege!
As Asia’s second and third largest economies respectively, Japan and India are vibrant democracies too and natural partners. India’s relations with Japan are singularly free of any kind of dispute – ideological, cultural or territorial. Not many countries in India’s neighbourhood can boast of this kind of track record. This is despite the length of their bilateral contact. India and Japan have had historical contacts for the last 1500 years.
The two Asian powers have been having a Strategic and Global Partnership since 2006. The Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to Japan will only take that process forward, much to the chagrin of the Chinese who will be inevitably watching closely the Indian prime minister’s visit to a nation they loath most.
Moreover, there is an old saying that”an enemy’s enemy is a friend”. China has cozied up to Pakistan keeping India and this very proverb in mind. In Japan, India sees the possibility of returning the favour to China.
It is true that India and Japan do not reflect their political proximity when it comes to bilateral trade between them. Their bilateral trade is hovering around $20 billion at present. This is nothing in comparison to India-China trade or even Japan-China trade. The Sino-Indian trade is currently pegged at around $80 billion while the Japan-China trade, now declining because of their deteriorating political relations, had peaked to a whopping $300 billion.
But trade is no insurance against frigid political relations which Japan and China are witnessing currently and the possibility of India and China going the same way in future cannot be ruled out.
Fortunately, over the years India has started according a very priority to its strategic relations with Japan, with an eye on China of course.
Some years back Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was put a blunt question by his Japanese counterpart during their annual summit in Tokyo: “How do you deal with China?” To this Singh had replied something like this: Stay engaged with the Chinese on all issues while keeping the most contentious bilateral issues in the background.
This is what India has been doing and Japan is striving to do vis a vis China. The Indian Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to Japan will inevitably provide a fresh template for the two Asian democracies to deal with China.
India needs to get even closer to Japan. This will be an effective counter to China’s “string of pearls” strategy vis a vis India. Japan will be in the same boat.
India is set to intensify its bilateral engagement with such major world powers as Germany, Japan and China. Perhaps the most defining of these engagements would be with Japan, a “swing” country for India to counterbalance the China factor. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to visit Japan by May-end; but more about it slightly later.
Shortly after that he is likely to visit China on a bilateral visit. However, it is but obvious that even if the PM’s visits to Japan and China are back-to-back, the two destinations won’t be clubbed in the PM’s itinerary as it would be bad diplomacy on part of India and would send wrong signals to both the receiving states.
In June, India is hosting the next IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) summit, whose biggest USP is that IBSA is an outfit that is sought by the Chinese to be rendered infructuous after BRICS but India is determined to continue with IBSA as well. The China angle is important in IBSA by virtue of its absence!
Ten days later Manmohan Singh would be in Germany for a bilateral visit (April 10-11). The importance of Germany cannot be overstated. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and also the most populous nation on the continent, having overtaken Russia. Germany contributes 23 percent of the European Union budget. It is India’s biggest trading partner in Europe (with bilateral trade hovering around 20 billlion USD) and the 5th biggest trading partner in the world. Germany is also India’s second largest technology partner.
India and Germany have a strategic partnership since 2001, which has been further strengthened with the first Intergovernmental Consultations held in May 2011. India is the first country in Asia (besides Israel,) and the only country outside Europe to have intergovernmental consultations with Germany.
India and Germany also have several institutionalized arrangements like a strategic dialogue, foreign office consultations, and joint commission on industrial and economic cooperation, defence committee dialogue and a Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism to discuss various bilateral and global issues of interest.
The agenda of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh can be gauged by this brief introduction of Germany and Indo-German relations.
However, the prime focus of the Indian diplomatic outreach would be Japan. As stated before, Japan is the “swing” country for India to balance China. Both India and Japan are troubled by a rising China and both, like many other nations in the neighbourhood, do not find China’s rise “peaceful”. India and Japan are the best bets for each other in countering China.
This is what is happening quietly but surely since 2006 when India and Japan started their bilateral mechanism of holding annual summits. In fact, Japan and Russia are the only two countries with which India has an institutionalized mechanism of annual summits. Not even countries like the United States or Germany or France or UK or even the powerful bloc like the European Union have that privilege!
As Asia’s second and third largest economies respectively, Japan and India are vibrant democracies too and natural partners. India’s relations with Japan are singularly free of any kind of dispute – ideological, cultural or territorial. Not many countries in India’s neighbourhood can boast of this kind of track record. This is despite the length of their bilateral contact. India and Japan have had historical contacts for the last 1500 years.
The two Asian powers have been having a Strategic and Global Partnership since 2006. The Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to Japan will only take that process forward, much to the chagrin of the Chinese who will be inevitably watching closely the Indian prime minister’s visit to a nation they loath most.
Moreover, there is an old saying that”an enemy’s enemy is a friend”. China has cozied up to Pakistan keeping India and this very proverb in mind. In Japan, India sees the possibility of returning the favour to China.
It is true that India and Japan do not reflect their political proximity when it comes to bilateral trade between them. Their bilateral trade is hovering around $20 billion at present. This is nothing in comparison to India-China trade or even Japan-China trade. The Sino-Indian trade is currently pegged at around $80 billion while the Japan-China trade, now declining because of their deteriorating political relations, had peaked to a whopping $300 billion.
But trade is no insurance against frigid political relations which Japan and China are witnessing currently and the possibility of India and China going the same way in future cannot be ruled out.
Fortunately, over the years India has started according a very priority to its strategic relations with Japan, with an eye on China of course.
Some years back Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was put a blunt question by his Japanese counterpart during their annual summit in Tokyo: “How do you deal with China?” To this Singh had replied something like this: Stay engaged with the Chinese on all issues while keeping the most contentious bilateral issues in the background.
This is what India has been doing and Japan is striving to do vis a vis China. The Indian Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to Japan will inevitably provide a fresh template for the two Asian democracies to deal with China.
India needs to get even closer to Japan. This will be an effective counter to China’s “string of pearls” strategy vis a vis India. Japan will be in the same boat.
No comments:
Post a Comment